80th Edition - 1/11/07

• Special Guest: Mike Triplett

Mike Triplett is the lead writer of the New Orleans Saints for the New Orleans Times-Picayune. But that's not all, he was a frequent guest on my couch when I lived in Los Angeles, a die-hard Cubs fan, a Hawkeye alum, and the only man to beat me head-to-head in the dvd board game "Scene It."

Confidence, Schmanfidence

Before I start talking NFL playoffs, can someone let me know if the college football season is over. I’d just like to make sure. I had completely forgotten that there was another game left on Monday night until I started flipping channels after How I Met Your Mother.

Maybe I’m just all out of whack because I spent the last week covering the New Orleans Saints during a first-round bye. It’s the first time that’s happened in 40 years, so everyone down here is a little discombobulated right now.

But that’s the new NFL, love it or hate it. Anyone can randomly spring up and have a great season. Just for fun, try to name the last 10 Super Bowl winners and losers, then come back to read the rest of this after you give up and google it. We are seriously about five or six years away from the year when all 32 teams finish 8-8.

That’s great if you’re a fan of, say, the Bears or the Saints, and you like to go into every year thinking anything can happen. It’s not so great, though, for predicting what will happen this week. The problem with trying to pick a Super Bowl winner is that every team is flawed. Everyone is beatable.

Here’s another fun test. Think of a game that you’re absolutely confident about this weekend. … Now I’ll bet you that you feel that way because you’re certain that the losing team will lose. My dad was convinced the Bears were in big trouble because of their own problems until he watched the NFC games over the weekend. Now he’s considerably more confident.

How can I possibly pick a Super Bowl favorite out of this bunch? Is it really Baltimore or San Diego, the Bears, Saints or Eagles? … These teams might be a lot more convincing if they didn’t have a combined playoff record of 0-1 last year.

So do I like a more pedigreed team like New England, Indy or Seattle? Not really.

I can’t wait to watch these games, though. I won’t be surprised by any result in any game from here on out.

I do know a lot more about the Saints than most teams, though. And I do kinda sorta like their chances against Philly, since the Saints’ biggest weakness this year has been giving up the deep ball, something the Eagles don’t really have in their arsenal right now.

But all I can say with absolute confidence is that the Saints have a 33 percent chance of reaching the Super Bowl, a 33 percent chance of losing in the NFC championship and a 33 percent chance of losing Saturday night.

Hopefully the daily score’s next guest blogger will be some sort of an expert who can shed some light on all of this.